Fresno State @ San Diego State
10/18/2026, 2:30:00 AM · CBSSN · 78° · Wind 2 mph · Fair · 23–26 F
Our pick Fresno State -7.0Did not cover by 10.0
Line movement
Home spread. Open +7.5 → now +7.0 · total 46.0
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +6.5 | 46.5 |
| Bovada | +7.0 | 45.5 |
San Diego State ML · Model 25% · Book 28%
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
Our pick Fresno State -7.0OC Spread San Diego State +7.5OC Total 49.51.0 pts vs market
Fresno StatePower ratingsSan Diego State
SP+Fresno State by 11.2
2.6
-8.6
FPIFresno State by 10.9
1.7
-9.3
Elo (pts)Fresno State by 16.0
6.4
-9.6
COREFresno State by 15.9
7.8
-8.0
WEPAFresno State by 10.0
3.4
-6.6
SRSFresno State by 10.2
2.9
-7.3
Head-to-head
Last 5: SU 3-2 · ATS 0-0 from San Diego State's side
- 2025 · San Diego State 23–0unpriced
- 2023 · San Diego State 33–18unpriced
- 2022 · San Diego State 28–32unpriced
- 2021 · San Diego State 20–30unpriced
- 2019 · San Diego State 17–7unpriced
Game recap
| Metric | Fresno State | San Diego State |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.433 | 0.429 |
| Explosiveness | 0.940 | 1.240 |
| Havoc | 0.190 | 0.149 |
| PPA | -0.061 | 0.140 |
| Field position | 74.400 | 64.800 |
Passing
- Jayden Mandal · Fresno State13/25 · 141 yds · 11.0 aDOT
- Stone Saunders · San Diego State6/11 · 61 yds · 10.2 aDOT
- Jayden Denegal · San Diego State7/10 · 112 yds · 11.2 aDOT