No. 23 Boise State @ Fresno State
10/11/2026, 2:30:00 AM · CW · 72° · Wind 6 mph · Fair · 38–31 F
3rd & 10 at FRES 49
Line movement
Home spread. Open +6.5 → now +9.0 · total 48.5
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Bovada | +9.5 | 48.5 |
| DraftKings | +8.5 | 48.5 |
Fresno State ML · Model 30% · Book 29%
Boise State travels 505 mi
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
OC Spread Fresno State +6.0OC Total 54.02.9 pts vs market
Boise StatePower ratingsFresno State
SP+Boise State by 8.3
10.9
2.6
FPIBoise State by 9.4
11.1
1.7
Elo (pts)Boise State by 2.1
8.6
6.4
COREBoise State by 9.5
17.4
7.8
WEPABoise State by 9.6
12.9
3.4
SRSBoise State by 9.4
12.3
2.9
Head-to-head
Last 4: SU 3-1 · ATS 0-0 from Fresno State's side
- 2025 · Fresno State 30–7unpriced
- 2023 · Fresno State 37–30unpriced
- 2022 · Fresno State 28–16unpriced
- 2021 · Fresno State 14–40unpriced
Game recap
| Metric | Boise State | Fresno State |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.469 | 0.490 |
| Explosiveness | 1.370 | 1.440 |
| Havoc | 0.078 | 0.086 |
| PPA | 0.396 | 0.355 |
| Field position | 75.300 | 72.600 |
Passing
- Maddux Madsen · Boise State23/34 · 238 yds · 6.8 aDOT
- Jayden Mandal · Fresno State19/33 · 218 yds · 8.0 aDOT
- Khristian Martin · Fresno State1/2 · 59 yds · 5.0 aDOT