Texas State @ San Diego State

10/4/2026, 2:30:00 AM · CW · 87° · Wind 0 mph · Clear · 29–31 F

Our pick San Diego State +5.0Covered by 7.0

4th & 14 at SDSU 48

Line movement

Home spread. Open +4.5 → now +10.0 · total 57.5

Book	Spread	Total
DraftKings	+10.0	57.5
Bovada	+9.5	57.5

San Diego State ML · Model 45% · Book 30% · value San Diego State

Texas State travels 1149 mi

OC Model projected score

Our pick San Diego State +5.0OC Spread San Diego State +1.5OC Total 58.58.2 pts vs market

Texas StatePower ratingsSan Diego State

SP+Texas State by 10.1

1.5

-8.6

FPITexas State by 10.1

0.8

-9.3

Elo (pts)Texas State by 12.3

2.8

-9.6

CORETexas State by 11.6

3.6

-8.0

WEPATexas State by 8.7

2.0

-6.6

SRSTexas State by 14.1

6.8

-7.3