Boise State @ Western Michigan
9/26/2026, 7:30:00 PM · ESPN2 · 70° · Wind 3 mph · Clear · 32–7 F
Our pick Boise State -8.5Covered by 16.5
Line movement
Home spread. Open +7.5 → now +8.5 · total 50.5
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +8.5 | 50.5 |
| Bovada | +8.5 | 50.5 |
Western Michigan ML · Model 16% · Book 29% · value Boise State
Boise State travels 1541 mi
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
Our pick Boise State -8.5OC Spread Western Michigan +11.5OC Total 51.53.1 pts vs market
Boise StatePower ratingsWestern Michigan
SP+Boise State by 13.6
10.9
-2.7
FPIBoise State by 14.7
11.1
-3.6
Elo (pts)Boise State by 9.1
8.6
-0.6
COREBoise State by 23.5
17.4
-6.2
WEPABoise State by 14.4
12.9
-1.4
SRSBoise State by 14.5
12.3
-2.2
Game recap
| Metric | Boise State | Western Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.537 | 0.421 |
| Explosiveness | 1.230 | 0.980 |
| Havoc | 0.184 | 0.056 |
| PPA | 0.415 | -0.122 |
| Field position | 71.600 | 73.400 |
Passing
- Broc Lowry · Western Michigan15/28 · 110 yds · 5.9 aDOT
- Maddux Madsen · Boise State16/23 · 204 yds · 10.6 aDOT
- Trey Petty · Western Michigan0/1 · 0 yds · 14.0 aDOT