Troy @ Utah State
9/26/2026, 11:30:00 PM · CBSSN · 77° · Wind 3 mph · Clear · 10–21 F
Our pick Troy +3.0Did not cover by 8.0
Line movement
Home spread. Open -2.5 → now -3.0 · total 47.5
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -3.0 | 47.5 |
| Bovada | -3.0 | 47.5 |
Utah State ML · Model 62% · Book 56% · value Utah State
Troy travels 1579 mi
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
Troy
21
Our pick Troy +3.0OC Spread Utah State -3.5OC Total 46.50.5 pts vs market
TroyPower ratingsUtah State
SP+Utah State by 0.7
-9.9
-9.2
FPIUtah State by 4.2
-9.2
-5.1
Elo (pts)Utah State by 1.2
-5.8
-4.7
COREUtah State by 12.1
-9.6
2.5
WEPAUtah State by 5.2
-5.1
0.1
SRSUtah State by 8.9
-13.7
-4.8
Head-to-head
Last 3: SU 1-2 · ATS 0-0 from Utah State's side
- 2004 · Utah State 21–49unpriced
- 2003 · Utah State 14–23unpriced
- 2002 · Utah State 19–16unpriced
Game recap
| Metric | Troy | Utah State |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.420 | 0.426 |
| Explosiveness | 1.040 | 1.280 |
| Havoc | 0.115 | 0.173 |
| PPA | -0.151 | 0.150 |
| Field position | 76.300 | 68.300 |
Passing
- Will Crowder · Troy26/50 · 232 yds · 10.8 aDOT
- Grady Brosterhous · Utah State19/29 · 241 yds · 9.0 aDOT