San Diego State @ Toledo
9/26/2026, 4:00:00 PM · CBSSN · 66° · Wind 4 mph · Clear · 16–41 F
Our pick Toledo -3.0Covered by 22.0
Line movement
Home spread. Open -1.5 → now -3.0 · total 50.5
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -2.5 | 50.5 |
| Bovada | -3.0 | 50.5 |
Toledo ML · Model 80% · Book 56% · value Toledo
San Diego State travels 1929 mi
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
Our pick Toledo -3.0OC Spread Toledo -10.0OC Total 50.07.0 pts vs market
San Diego StatePower ratingsToledo
SP+Toledo by 10.6
-8.6
2.0
FPIToledo by 6.8
-9.3
-2.5
Elo (pts)Toledo by 11.7
-9.6
2.2
COREToledo by 13.8
-8.0
5.8
WEPAToledo by 11.8
-6.6
5.1
SRSToledo by 7.1
-7.3
-0.2
Head-to-head
Last 1: SU 0-1 · ATS 0-0 from Toledo's side
- 2022 · Toledo 14–17unpriced
Game recap
| Metric | San Diego State | Toledo |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.256 | 0.463 |
| Explosiveness | 1.840 | 1.310 |
| Havoc | 0.111 | 0.279 |
| PPA | -0.190 | 0.255 |
| Field position | 72.100 | 65.200 |
Passing
- Jayden Denegal · San Diego State19/31 · 206 yds · 9.2 aDOT
- John Alan Richter · Toledo16/22 · 284 yds · 11.4 aDOT
- Donovan Brown · San Diego State1/1 · -11 yds · -11.0 aDOT