Rice @ Fresno State
9/27/2026, 2:00:00 AM · CW · 83° · Wind 2 mph · Cloudy · 24–38 F
Our pick Fresno State -12.5Covered by 1.5
Line movement
Home spread. Open -13.5 → now -12.5 · total 43.5
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -12.5 | 43.5 |
| Bovada | -12.0 | 43.5 |
Fresno State ML · Model 91% · Book 81% · value Fresno State
Rice travels 1485 mi
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
Rice
17
Our pick Fresno State -12.5OC Spread Fresno State -16.5OC Total 50.04.2 pts vs market
RicePower ratingsFresno State
SP+Fresno State by 16.8
-14.2
2.6
FPIFresno State by 16.1
-14.4
1.7
Elo (pts)Fresno State by 21.3
-14.8
6.4
COREFresno State by 20.0
-12.1
7.8
WEPAFresno State by 10.7
-7.4
3.4
SRSFresno State by 14.3
-11.4
2.9
Head-to-head
Last 5: SU 4-1 · ATS 0-0 from Fresno State's side
- 2014 · Fresno State 6–30unpriced
- 2004 · Fresno State 52–14unpriced
- 2003 · Fresno State 31–28unpriced
- 2002 · Fresno State 31–28unpriced
- 2001 · Fresno State 52–24unpriced
Game recap
| Metric | Rice | Fresno State |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.516 | 0.429 |
| Explosiveness | 1.270 | 1.510 |
| Havoc | 0.129 | 0.188 |
| PPA | 0.241 | 0.239 |
| Field position | 79.800 | 63.500 |
Passing
- Jayden Mandal · Fresno State22/34 · 210 yds · 6.6 aDOT
- Jacurri Brown · Rice8/17 · 119 yds · 10.1 aDOT