North Texas @ Texas State
9/19/2026, 4:00:00 PM · USA Net · 87° · Wind 4 mph · Clear · 35–49 F
Our pick North Texas +3.0Did not cover by 11.0
Line movement
Home spread. Open -3.0 → now -3.0 · total 62.5
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -3.0 | 62.5 |
| Bovada | -3.0 | 62.5 |
| Draft Kings | -3.0 | 62.5 |
Texas State ML · Model 58% · Book 57%
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
Our pick North Texas +3.0OC Spread Texas State -2.5OC Total 65.50.7 pts vs market
North TexasPower ratingsTexas State
SP+Texas State by 2.1
-0.6
1.5
FPINorth Texas by 1.4
2.2
0.8
Elo (pts)North Texas by 3.7
6.5
2.8
CORENorth Texas by 3.2
6.7
3.6
WEPANorth Texas by 5.0
7.0
2.0
SRSTexas State by 2.7
4.1
6.8
Head-to-head
Last 1: SU 1-0 · ATS 0-0 from Texas State's side
- 2024 · Texas State 30–28unpriced
Game recap
| Metric | North Texas | Texas State |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.523 | 0.592 |
| Explosiveness | 1.180 | 1.380 |
| Havoc | 0.056 | 0.140 |
| PPA | 0.226 | 0.530 |
| Field position | 76.600 | 67.800 |
Passing
- Tayven Jackson · North Texas43/57 · 522 yds · 7.6 aDOT
- Brad Jackson · Texas State16/22 · 268 yds · 11.5 aDOT