Fresno State @ San José State
9/20/2026, 3:00:00 AM · FS1 · 68° · Wind 5 mph · Cloudy · 26–10 F
Our pick Fresno State -4.5Covered by 11.5
3rd & 5 at FRES 25
Line movement
Home spread. Open +7.0 → now +4.0 · total 47.5
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +4.5 | 47.5 |
| Bovada | +4.0 | 47.5 |
| Draft Kings | +4.0 | 47.5 |
San José State ML · Model 19% · Book 33% · value Fresno State
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
Our pick Fresno State -4.5OC Spread San José State +10.5OC Total 45.56.1 pts vs market
Fresno StatePower ratingsSan José State
SP+Fresno State by 13.9
2.6
-11.3
FPIFresno State by 13.6
1.7
-11.9
Elo (pts)Fresno State by 11.8
6.4
-5.4
COREFresno State by 15.0
7.8
-7.1
WEPAFresno State by 4.9
3.4
-1.5
SRSFresno State by 14.3
2.9
-11.4
Head-to-head
Last 5: SU 1-4 · ATS 0-0 from San José State's side
- 2025 · San José State 14–41unpriced
- 2024 · San José State 10–33unpriced
- 2023 · San José State 42–18unpriced
- 2022 · San José State 10–17unpriced
- 2021 · San José State 9–40unpriced
Game recap
| Metric | Fresno State | San José State |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.304 | 0.329 |
| Explosiveness | 1.470 | 1.110 |
| Havoc | 0.200 | 0.145 |
| PPA | 0.036 | -0.167 |
| Field position | 60.900 | 78.900 |
Passing
- Luke Weaver · San José State21/38 · 244 yds · 11.0 aDOT
- Jayden Mandal · Fresno State15/29 · 186 yds · 8.8 aDOT