UTSA @ Texas State
9/12/2026, 7:30:00 PM · CW · 100° · Wind 6 mph · Rain Shower · 31–26 F
Our pick UTSA +1.5Covered by 6.5
Line movement
Home spread. Open -1.5 → now -1.5 · total 65.5
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -1.5 | 65.5 |
| Bovada | -1.5 | 65.5 |
Texas State ML · Model 38% · Book 36%
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
UTSA
34
Our pick UTSA +1.5OC Spread Texas State +3.5OC Total 64.55.3 pts vs market
UTSAPower ratingsTexas State
SP+UTSA by 2.0
3.5
1.5
FPITexas State by 0.4
0.4
0.8
Elo (pts)UTSA by 0.8
3.5
2.8
CORETexas State by 4.0
-0.4
3.6
WEPAUTSA by 0.1
2.1
2.0
SRSTexas State by 4.4
2.4
6.8
Head-to-head
Last 5: SU 2-3 · ATS 0-0 from Texas State's side
- 2025 · Texas State 43–36unpriced
- 2024 · Texas State 49–10unpriced
- 2023 · Texas State 13–20unpriced
- 2020 · Texas State 48–51unpriced
- 2018 · Texas State 21–25unpriced
Game recap
| Metric | UTSA | Texas State |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.459 | 0.468 |
| Explosiveness | 1.090 | 1.080 |
| Havoc | 0.089 | 0.108 |
| PPA | 0.238 | 0.208 |
| Field position | 69 | 73.500 |
Passing
- Owen McCown · UTSA28/42 · 214 yds · 7.5 aDOT
- Brad Jackson · Texas State17/30 · 218 yds · 8.7 aDOT
- David Amador · UTSA1/1 · 44 yds · 36.0 aDOT