Sacramento State @ Fresno State
9/13/2026, 2:30:00 AM · CBSSN · 83° · Wind 9 mph · Fair · 3–49 F
Our pick Sacramento State +18.5Did not cover by 27.5
Line movement
Home spread. Open -18.5 → now -18.0 · total 43.5
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -17.5 | 43.5 |
| Bovada | -18.5 | 43.5 |
Fresno State ML · Model 97% · Book 87% · value Fresno State
Sacramento State travels 1918 mi
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
Our pick Sacramento State +18.5OC Spread Fresno State -25.5OC Total 48.07.6 pts vs market
Sacramento StatePower ratingsFresno State
SP+Fresno State by 31.7
-29.1
2.6
FPIFresno State by 31.7
-30.1
1.7
Elo (pts)Fresno State by 24.8
-18.4
6.4
COREFresno State by 31.6
-23.8
7.8
WEPAFresno State by 19.4
-16.0
3.4
SRSFresno State by 28.2
-25.3
2.9
Head-to-head
Last 5: SU 5-0 · ATS 0-0 from Fresno State's side
- 2024 · Fresno State 46–30unpriced
- 2019 · Fresno State 34–20unpriced
- 2016 · Fresno State 31–3unpriced
- 2007 · Fresno State 24–3unpriced
- 1972 · Fresno State 24–7unpriced
Game recap
| Metric | Sacramento State | Fresno State |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.400 | 0.488 |
| Explosiveness | 0.820 | 1.360 |
| Havoc | 0.116 | 0.267 |
| PPA | -0.050 | 0.296 |
| Field position | 76.100 | 68.900 |
Passing
- Jackson Sharman · Sacramento State16/32 · 153 yds · 9.8 aDOT
- Jayden Mandal · Fresno State23/27 · 318 yds · 3.5 aDOT
- Khristian Martin · Fresno State2/2 · 12 yds · -1.0 aDOT
- Jordan Malau'ulu · Fresno State1/1 · 21 yds · -2.0 aDOT