No. 25 Northwestern @ Michigan State
10/17/2026, 4:00:00 PM · Peacock · 47° · Wind 3 mph · Clear · 24–21 F
Our pick Northwestern -7.5Did not cover by 4.5
Line movement
Home spread. Open +7.5 → now +7.5 · total 50.5
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +7.5 | 50.5 |
| Bovada | +7.0 | 50.0 |
Michigan State ML · Model 18% · Book 27% · value Northwestern
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
Our pick Northwestern -7.5OC Spread Michigan State +11.0OC Total 53.03.6 pts vs market
NorthwesternPower ratingsMichigan State
SP+Northwestern by 16.7
13.7
-3.0
FPINorthwestern by 12.8
13.5
0.8
Elo (pts)Northwestern by 12.1
9.8
-2.2
CORENorthwestern by 15.0
16.0
1.0
WEPANorthwestern by 17.3
12.3
-5.1
SRSNorthwestern by 13.0
14.3
1.3
Head-to-head
Last 5: SU 3-2 · ATS 0-0 from Michigan State's side
- 2021 · Michigan State 38–21unpriced
- 2020 · Michigan State 29–20unpriced
- 2019 · Michigan State 31–10unpriced
- 2018 · Michigan State 19–29unpriced
- 2017 · Michigan State 31–39unpriced
Game recap
| Metric | Northwestern | Michigan State |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.446 | 0.439 |
| Explosiveness | 1.410 | 1.110 |
| Havoc | 0.105 | 0.203 |
| PPA | 0.226 | 0.021 |
| Field position | 69.300 | 65.500 |
Passing
- Alessio Milivojevic · Michigan State19/30 · 216 yds · 8.7 aDOT
- Aidan Chiles · Northwestern18/28 · 226 yds · 8.7 aDOT
- Alex Honig · Northwestern0/1 · 0 yds · 12.0 aDOT