Ball State @ Northwestern
10/10/2026, 4:30:00 PM · BTN · 79° · Wind 8 mph · Cloudy · 14–45 F
Our pick Northwestern -35.0Did not cover by 4.0
Line movement
Home spread. Open -36.0 → now -35.0 · total 53.5
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Bovada | -35.0 | 53.0 |
| DraftKings | -34.5 | 53.5 |
Northwestern ML · Model 100%
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
Our pick Northwestern -35.0OC Spread Northwestern -40.5OC Total 54.05.5 pts vs market
Ball StatePower ratingsNorthwestern
SP+Northwestern by 33.8
-20.1
13.7
FPINorthwestern by 33.5
-20.0
13.5
Elo (pts)Northwestern by 25.9
-16.1
9.8
CORENorthwestern by 27.3
-11.3
16.0
WEPANorthwestern by 21.0
-8.7
12.3
SRSNorthwestern by 29.7
-15.4
14.3
Head-to-head
Last 1: SU 1-0 · ATS 0-0 from Northwestern's side
- 2015 · Northwestern 24–19unpriced
Game recap
| Metric | Ball State | Northwestern |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.404 | 0.542 |
| Explosiveness | 1.200 | 1.610 |
| Havoc | 0.250 | 0.231 |
| PPA | 0.036 | 0.604 |
| Field position | 77.800 | 76.400 |
Passing
- Keldric Luster · Ball State27/41 · 209 yds · 5.5 aDOT
- Aidan Chiles · Northwestern17/23 · 272 yds · 10.5 aDOT
- Tyler Mizzell · Ball State4/5 · 51 yds · 13.8 aDOT
- Nicco Marchiol · Northwestern0/1 · 0 yds · 8.0 aDOT