Illinois @ Michigan State
10/10/2026, 7:30:00 PM · FS1 · 73° · Wind 6 mph · Cloudy · 38–37 F
Line movement
Home spread. Open +3.5 → now +2.5 · total 48.5
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Bovada | +2.5 | 48.0 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 | 48.5 |
Michigan State ML · Model 43% · Book 41%
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
OC Spread Michigan State +2.0OC Total 56.00.5 pts vs market
IllinoisPower ratingsMichigan State
SP+Illinois by 9.8
6.8
-3.0
FPIIllinois by 5.1
5.9
0.8
Elo (pts)Illinois by 5.0
2.7
-2.2
COREMichigan State by 4.8
-3.8
1.0
WEPAIllinois by 0.8
-4.2
-5.1
SRSIllinois by 3.3
4.6
1.3
Head-to-head
Last 5: SU 2-3 · ATS 0-0 from Michigan State's side
- 2024 · Michigan State 16–38unpriced
- 2022 · Michigan State 23–15unpriced
- 2019 · Michigan State 34–37unpriced
- 2016 · Michigan State 27–31unpriced
- 2013 · Michigan State 42–3unpriced
Game recap
| Metric | Illinois | Michigan State |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.521 | 0.509 |
| Explosiveness | 1.050 | 1.300 |
| Havoc | 0.094 | 0.082 |
| PPA | 0.204 | 0.456 |
| Field position | 74.900 | 63.300 |
Passing
- Katin Houser · Illinois20/29 · 194 yds · 7.8 aDOT
- Alessio Milivojevic · Michigan State22/26 · 196 yds · 5.3 aDOT
- Michael Clayton II · Illinois5/7 · 74 yds · 6.6 aDOT
- Carson Gulker · Michigan State1/1 · 19 yds · 8.0 aDOT