Michigan State @ Wisconsin
10/3/2026, 4:30:00 PM · BTN · 66° · Wind 3 mph · Clear · 3–31 F
Line movement
Home spread. Open -10.0 → now -9.0 · total 43.5
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -8.5 | 43.5 |
| Bovada | -9.0 | 43.0 |
Wisconsin ML · Model 82% · Book 76% · value Wisconsin
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
OC Spread Wisconsin -10.5OC Total 46.52.0 pts vs market
Michigan StatePower ratingsWisconsin
SP+Wisconsin by 11.7
-3.0
8.7
FPIWisconsin by 7.7
0.8
8.5
Elo (pts)Wisconsin by 8.0
-2.2
5.8
COREWisconsin by 13.4
1.0
14.4
WEPAWisconsin by 14.3
-5.1
9.3
SRSWisconsin by 6.8
1.3
8.1
Head-to-head
Last 5: SU 2-3 · ATS 0-0 from Wisconsin's side
Game recap
| Metric | Michigan State | Wisconsin |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.353 | 0.328 |
| Explosiveness | 0.820 | 1.870 |
| Havoc | 0.098 | 0.162 |
| PPA | -0.355 | 0.297 |
| Field position | 73.800 | 70.600 |
Passing
- Alessio Milivojevic · Michigan State15/32 · 118 yds · 5.6 aDOT
- Colton Joseph · Wisconsin9/20 · 145 yds · 7.5 aDOT
- Cam Fancher · Michigan State1/2 · 5 yds · 3.0 aDOT