No. 19 Washington @ No. 18 USC
10/3/2026, 11:30:00 PM · NBC · 100° · Wind 9 mph · Clear · 21–25 F
Our pick USC -8.5Did not cover by 4.5
Line movement
Home spread. Open -10.0 → now -8.5 · total 58.5
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -7.5 | 58.5 |
| Bovada | -9.0 | 58.0 |
USC ML · Model 82% · Book 75% · value USC
Washington travels 965 mi
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
USC
34
Our pick USC -8.5OC Spread USC -10.5OC Total 56.52.3 pts vs market
WashingtonPower ratingsUSC
SP+USC by 4.7
9.5
14.2
FPIUSC by 7.8
7.2
15.0
Elo (pts)USC by 3.2
8.9
12.1
COREUSC by 3.8
6.1
9.9
WEPAUSC by 3.9
3.5
7.4
SRSUSC by 5.2
5.3
10.5
Head-to-head
Last 5: SU 1-4 · ATS 0-0 from USC's side
Game recap
| Metric | Washington | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.400 | 0.437 |
| Explosiveness | 1.360 | 1.200 |
| Havoc | 0.113 | 0.150 |
| PPA | 0.232 | 0.193 |
| Field position | 74.900 | 76.600 |
Passing
- Jayden Maiava · USC21/34 · 245 yds · 6.2 aDOT
- Demond Williams Jr. · Washington15/26 · 198 yds · 9.2 aDOT
- Dezmen Roebuck · Washington1/1 · 5 yds · 5.0 aDOT