Nebraska @ Michigan State
9/26/2026, 9:00:00 PM · BTN · 69° · Wind 4 mph · Clear · 31–13 F
Our pick Nebraska -6.0Covered by 12.0
Line movement
Home spread. Open +5.5 → now +6.0 · total 48.5
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +6.0 | 48.5 |
| Bovada | +6.0 | 48.5 |
Michigan State ML · Model 17% · Book 34% · value Nebraska
Nebraska travels 643 mi
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
Our pick Nebraska -6.0OC Spread Michigan State +11.5OC Total 52.05.3 pts vs market
NebraskaPower ratingsMichigan State
SP+Nebraska by 18.4
15.4
-3.0
FPINebraska by 13.9
14.7
0.8
Elo (pts)Nebraska by 12.2
10.0
-2.2
CORENebraska by 12.8
13.8
1.0
WEPANebraska by 13.9
8.9
-5.1
SRSNebraska by 11.5
12.8
1.3
Head-to-head
Last 5: SU 2-3 · ATS 0-0 from Michigan State's side
- 2026 · Michigan State 13–31unpriced
- 2025 · Michigan State 27–38unpriced
- 2023 · Michigan State 20–17unpriced
- 2021 · Michigan State 23–20unpriced
- 2018 · Michigan State 6–9unpriced
Game recap
| Metric | Nebraska | Michigan State |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.449 | 0.467 |
| Explosiveness | 1.330 | 0.940 |
| Havoc | 0.267 | 0.116 |
| PPA | 0.239 | -0.033 |
| Field position | 66.100 | 75.400 |
Passing
- Anthony Colandrea · Nebraska15/27 · 212 yds · 7.8 aDOT
- Alessio Milivojevic · Michigan State18/26 · 208 yds · 7.8 aDOT
- Cam Fancher · Michigan State1/2 · 10 yds · 8.0 aDOT