Michigan State @ No. 3 Notre Dame
9/19/2026, 11:30:00 PM · NBC · 69° · Wind 0 mph · Cloudy · 10–27 F
Line movement
Home spread. Open -29.5 → now -28.5 · total 51.5
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -28.5 | 51.5 |
| Bovada | -29.0 | 51.5 |
| Draft Kings | -28.5 | 51.5 |
Notre Dame ML · Model 98% · Book 95%
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
OC Spread Notre Dame -26.0OC Total 53.02.7 pts vs market
Michigan StatePower ratingsNotre Dame
SP+Notre Dame by 28.2
-3.0
25.2
FPINotre Dame by 26.0
0.8
26.8
Elo (pts)Notre Dame by 25.2
-2.2
22.9
CORENotre Dame by 31.8
1.0
32.8
WEPANotre Dame by 22.2
-5.1
17.2
SRSNotre Dame by 19.8
1.3
21.1
Head-to-head
Last 5: SU 4-1 · ATS 0-0 from Notre Dame's side
- 2017 · Notre Dame 38–18unpriced
- 2016 · Notre Dame 28–36unpriced
- 2013 · Notre Dame 17–13unpriced
- 2012 · Notre Dame 20–3unpriced
- 2011 · Notre Dame 31–13unpriced
Game recap
| Metric | Michigan State | Notre Dame |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.375 | 0.485 |
| Explosiveness | 1.100 | 1.010 |
| Havoc | 0.074 | 0.313 |
| PPA | -0.105 | 0.179 |
| Field position | 72.600 | 68.100 |
Passing
- C.J. Carr · Notre Dame18/24 · 234 yds · 10.3 aDOT
- Alessio Milivojevic · Michigan State9/17 · 123 yds · 12.3 aDOT
- Cam Fancher · Michigan State0/1 · 0 yds · 14.0 aDOT