San Diego State @ UCLA
9/12/2026, 11:15:00 PM · BTN · 84° · Wind 4 mph · Clear · 10–28 F
Our pick San Diego State +10.0Did not cover by 8.0
Line movement
Home spread. Open -8.5 → now -13.5 · total 53.5
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -13.5 | 53.5 |
| Bovada | -13.5 | 53.5 |
| Draft Kings | -13.5 | 53.5 |
UCLA ML · Model 84% · Book 80%
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
Our pick San Diego State +10.0OC Spread UCLA -11.5OC Total 51.02.1 pts vs market
San Diego StatePower ratingsUCLA
SP+UCLA by 9.6
-0.5
9.1
FPIUCLA by 8.1
-1.1
7.0
Elo (pts)UCLA by 0.7
-1.2
-0.5
COREUCLA by 6.3
0.2
6.5
Head-to-head
Last 5: SU 4-1 · ATS 0-0 from UCLA's side
Game recap
| Metric | San Diego State | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.298 | 0.426 |
| Explosiveness | 0.740 | 1.090 |
| Havoc | 0.103 | 0.193 |
| PPA | -0.092 | 0.124 |
| Field position | 75.400 | 62.600 |
Passing
- Nico Iamaleava · UCLA14/23 · 151 yds · 5.2 aDOT
- Jayden Denegal · San Diego State6/17 · 45 yds · 16.1 aDOT