Eastern Michigan @ Michigan State
9/12/2026, 7:30:00 PM · BTN · 83° · Wind 3 mph · Cloudy · 7–35 F
Our pick Michigan State -17.5Covered by 10.5
Line movement
Home spread. Open -15.5 → now -17.5 · total 50.0
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Bovada | -17.5 | 50.0 |
| DraftKings | -17.5 | 49.5 |
Michigan State ML · Model 97% · Book 87% · value Michigan State
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
Our pick Michigan State -17.5OC Spread Michigan State -23.0OC Total 51.05.7 pts vs market
Eastern MichiganPower ratingsMichigan State
SP+Michigan State by 11.6
-14.6
-3.0
FPIMichigan State by 16.8
-16.1
0.8
Elo (pts)Michigan State by 9.0
-11.2
-2.2
COREMichigan State by 16.8
-15.9
1.0
WEPAMichigan State by 6.7
-11.8
-5.1
SRSMichigan State by 15.4
-14.1
1.3
Head-to-head
Last 5: SU 5-0 · ATS 0-0 from Michigan State's side
- 2014 · Michigan State 73–14unpriced
- 2012 · Michigan State 23–7unpriced
- 2008 · Michigan State 42–10unpriced
- 2006 · Michigan State 52–20unpriced
- 2002 · Michigan State 56–7unpriced
Game recap
| Metric | Eastern Michigan | Michigan State |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.440 | 0.556 |
| Explosiveness | 0.970 | 1.120 |
| Havoc | 0.175 | 0.220 |
| PPA | 0.115 | 0.300 |
| Field position | 80 | 65.300 |
Passing
- Noah Kim · Eastern Michigan16/26 · 118 yds · 4.8 aDOT
- Alessio Milivojevic · Michigan State12/20 · 170 yds · 7.9 aDOT
- Cam Fancher · Michigan State6/6 · 44 yds · 3.2 aDOT