Wisconsin vs No. 4 Notre Dame
9/6/2026, 11:30:00 PM · NBC · 69° · Wind 4 mph · Clear · 13–41 F
Our pick Notre Dame -21.0Covered by 7.0
Line movement
Home spread. Open -20.5 → now -21.0 · total 46.0
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Bovada | -20.5 | 46.5 |
| DraftKings | -21.0 | 45.5 |
Notre Dame ML · Model 92% · Book 91%
Wisconsin off a byeNotre Dame off a bye
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
Our pick Notre Dame -21.0OC Spread Notre Dame -17.0OC Total 46.53.9 pts vs market
Win probability
Wisconsin 8%Notre Dame 92%
WisconsinPower ratingsNotre Dame
SP+Notre Dame by 16.5
8.7
25.2
FPINotre Dame by 18.3
8.5
26.8
Elo (pts)Notre Dame by 17.1
5.8
22.9
CORENotre Dame by 18.3
14.4
32.8
WEPANotre Dame by 7.9
9.3
17.2
SRSNotre Dame by 13.0
8.1
21.1
Head-to-head
Last 5: SU 3-2 · ATS 0-0 from Notre Dame's side
- 2021 · Notre Dame 41–13unpriced
- 1964 · Notre Dame 31–7unpriced
- 1963 · Notre Dame 9–14unpriced
- 1962 · Notre Dame 8–17unpriced
- 1944 · Notre Dame 28–13unpriced
Game recap
| Metric | Wisconsin | Notre Dame |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.321 | 0.460 |
| Explosiveness | 1.280 | 1.110 |
| Havoc | 0.111 | 0.245 |
| PPA | 0.027 | 0.349 |
| Field position | 67.500 | 80.100 |
Passing
- C.J. Carr · Notre Dame19/29 · 239 yds · 6.0 aDOT
- Colton Joseph · Wisconsin19/29 · 217 yds · 5.3 aDOT