Fresno State @ No. 14 USC
9/5/2026, 1:00:00 AM · FOX · 75° · Wind 7 mph · Clear · 0–39 F
Our pick USC -22.0Covered by 17.0
Line movement
Home spread. Open -23.5 → now -22.0 · total 51.5
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -21.5 | 51.5 |
| Bovada | -22.5 | 51.0 |
| Draft Kings | -21.5 | 51.5 |
USC ML · Model 95% · Book 92%
Fresno State off a byeFresno State +245 days rest
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
USC
38
Our pick USC -22.0OC Spread USC -24.5OC Total 51.02.5 pts vs market
Win probability
Fresno State 5%USC 95%
Fresno StatePower ratingsUSC
SP+USC by 20.3
-0.8
19.5
FPIUSC by 19.4
-0.9
18.5
Elo (pts)USC by 9.8
3.6
13.5
COREUSC by 15.3
-1.1
14.2
Head-to-head
Last 5: SU 5-0 · ATS 0-0 from USC's side
Game recap
| Metric | Fresno State | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.222 | 0.622 |
| Explosiveness | 1.140 | 1.220 |
| Havoc | 0.216 | 0.333 |
| PPA | -0.356 | 0.506 |
| Field position | 77.800 | 74.100 |
Passing
- Jayden Maiava · USC23/25 · 349 yds · 6.8 aDOT
- Jayden Mandal · Fresno State7/15 · 77 yds · 7.2 aDOT
- Jonas Williams · USC6/6 · 63 yds · 2.7 aDOT