Fresno State @ No. 14 USC
9/5/2026, 1:00:00 AM · FOX · 75° · Wind 7 mph · Clear · 0–39 F
Our pick USC -22.0Covered by 17.0
Line movement
Home spread. Open -23.5 → now -22.0 · total 51.5
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Bovada | -22.5 | 51.0 |
| DraftKings | -21.5 | 51.5 |
USC ML · Model 95% · Book 92%
Fresno State off a byeFresno State +245 days rest
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
USC
35
Our pick USC -22.0OC Spread USC -15.5OC Total 54.06.5 pts vs market
Win probability
Fresno State 5%USC 95%
Fresno StatePower ratingsUSC
SP+USC by 11.6
2.6
14.2
FPIUSC by 13.3
1.7
15.0
Elo (pts)USC by 5.6
6.4
12.1
COREUSC by 2.1
7.8
9.9
WEPAUSC by 4.0
3.4
7.4
SRSUSC by 7.6
2.9
10.5
Head-to-head
Last 5: SU 5-0 · ATS 0-0 from USC's side
Game recap
| Metric | Fresno State | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.222 | 0.622 |
| Explosiveness | 1.140 | 1.220 |
| Havoc | 0.216 | 0.333 |
| PPA | -0.356 | 0.506 |
| Field position | 77.800 | 74.100 |
Passing
- Jayden Maiava · USC23/25 · 349 yds · 6.8 aDOT
- Jayden Mandal · Fresno State7/15 · 77 yds · 7.2 aDOT
- Jonas Williams · USC6/6 · 63 yds · 2.7 aDOT