Boise State @ No. 2 Oregon
9/5/2026, 7:30:00 PM · CBS · 68° · Wind 3 mph · Fair · 27–34 F
Our pick Boise State +24.5Covered by 17.5
Line movement
Home spread. Open -24.5 → now -24.5 · total 52.5
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -24.5 | 52.5 |
| Bovada | -25.0 | 51.5 |
| Draft Kings | -24.5 | 53.5 |
Oregon ML · Model 95% · Book 93%
Boise State off a byeOregon off a byeBoise State +27 days rest
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
Our pick Boise State +24.5OC Spread Oregon -15.5OC Total 54.09.3 pts vs market
Win probability
Boise State 5%Oregon 95%
Boise StatePower ratingsOregon
SP+Oregon by 16.0
6.9
22.9
FPIOregon by 8.9
8.2
17.1
Elo (pts)Oregon by 8.1
4.4
12.4
COREOregon by 10.2
0.5
10.7
Head-to-head
Last 4: SU 1-3 · ATS 0-0 from Oregon's side
Game recap
| Metric | Boise State | Oregon |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.358 | 0.453 |
| Explosiveness | 1.020 | 1.490 |
| Havoc | 0.156 | 0.134 |
| PPA | 0.113 | 0.268 |
| Field position | 72.800 | 63.600 |
Passing
- Dante Moore · Oregon29/38 · 387 yds · 5.2 aDOT
- Maddux Madsen · Boise State15/29 · 181 yds · 7.3 aDOT
- Evan Stewart · Oregon0/1 · 0 yds · 25.0 aDOT