Boise State @ No. 2 Oregon
9/5/2026, 7:30:00 PM · CBS · 68° · Wind 3 mph · Fair · 27–34 F
Our pick Boise State +24.5Covered by 17.5
Line movement
Home spread. Open -24.5 → now -25.0 · total 52.5
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Bovada | -25.0 | 51.5 |
| DraftKings | -24.5 | 53.5 |
Oregon ML · Model 95% · Book 93%
Boise State off a byeOregon off a byeBoise State +27 days rest
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
Our pick Boise State +24.5OC Spread Oregon -8.5OC Total 54.016.3 pts vs market
Win probability
Boise State 5%Oregon 95%
Boise StatePower ratingsOregon
SP+Oregon by 6.1
10.9
17.0
FPIOregon by 6.3
11.1
17.4
Elo (pts)Oregon by 3.3
8.6
11.9
COREBoise State by 9.2
17.4
8.2
WEPABoise State by 7.9
12.9
5.0
SRSOregon by 1.8
12.3
14.1
Head-to-head
Last 4: SU 1-3 · ATS 0-0 from Oregon's side
Game recap
| Metric | Boise State | Oregon |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.358 | 0.453 |
| Explosiveness | 1.020 | 1.490 |
| Havoc | 0.156 | 0.134 |
| PPA | 0.113 | 0.268 |
| Field position | 72.800 | 63.600 |
Passing
- Dante Moore · Oregon29/38 · 387 yds · 5.2 aDOT
- Maddux Madsen · Boise State15/29 · 181 yds · 7.3 aDOT
- Evan Stewart · Oregon0/1 · 0 yds · 25.0 aDOT