Ball State @ No. 1 Ohio State
9/5/2026, 4:30:00 PM · BTN · 81° · Wind 2 mph · Cloudy · 3–56 F
Our pick Ohio State -50.5Covered by 2.5
Line movement
Home spread. Open -51.0 → now -51.0 · total 56.0
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Bovada | -51.0 | 56.5 |
| DraftKings | -50.5 | 55.5 |
Ohio State ML · Model 100%
Ball State off a byeOhio State off a byeBall State +32 days rest
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
Our pick Ohio State -50.5OC Spread Ohio State -51.0OC Total 52.50.3 pts vs market
Win probability
Ball State 0%Ohio State 100%
Ball StatePower ratingsOhio State
SP+Ohio State by 48.7
-20.1
28.6
FPIOhio State by 46.2
-20.0
26.2
Elo (pts)Ohio State by 36.8
-16.1
20.8
COREOhio State by 34.7
-11.3
23.3
WEPAOhio State by 23.9
-8.7
15.2
SRSOhio State by 34.1
-15.4
18.7
Game recap
| Metric | Ball State | Ohio State |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.194 | 0.614 |
| Explosiveness | 1.290 | 1.370 |
| Havoc | 0.182 | 0.389 |
| PPA | -0.222 | 0.647 |
| Field position | 71.300 | 76.200 |
Passing
- Keldric Luster · Ball State18/33 · 89 yds · 7.4 aDOT
- Julian Sayin · Ohio State21/25 · 320 yds · 13.8 aDOT
- Luke Fahey · Ohio State5/6 · 62 yds · 8.4 aDOT
- Tyler Mizzell · Ball State2/4 · 31 yds · 5.3 aDOT