Toledo @ Michigan State
9/5/2026, 12:00:00 AM · FS1 · 73° · Wind 2 mph · Fair · 20–30 F
Our pick Toledo +10.0PPushed
Line movement
Home spread. Open -10.0 → now -10.0 · total 48.5
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -10.0 | 48.5 |
| Bovada | -10.0 | 48.5 |
Michigan State ML · Model 76% · Book 77%
Toledo off a byeMichigan State off a byeMichigan State +24 days rest
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
Our pick Toledo +10.0OC Spread Michigan State -3.0OC Total 51.57.0 pts vs market
Win probability
Toledo 25%Michigan State 76%
ToledoPower ratingsMichigan State
SP+Toledo by 5.0
2.0
-3.0
FPIMichigan State by 3.3
-2.5
0.8
Elo (pts)Toledo by 4.4
2.2
-2.2
COREToledo by 4.8
5.8
1.0
WEPAToledo by 10.2
5.1
-5.1
SRSMichigan State by 1.5
-0.2
1.3
Head-to-head
Last 1: SU 1-0 · ATS 0-0 from Michigan State's side
- 1925 · Michigan State 58–0unpriced
Game recap
| Metric | Toledo | Michigan State |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.286 | 0.376 |
| Explosiveness | 2.340 | 1.100 |
| Havoc | 0.106 | 0.262 |
| PPA | 0.284 | 0.023 |
| Field position | 75 | 59.300 |
Passing
- Alessio Milivojevic · Michigan State26/34 · 247 yds · 8.1 aDOT
- John Alan Richter · Toledo12/21 · 196 yds · 10.6 aDOT