Western Michigan @ No. 16 Michigan
9/5/2026, 11:30:00 PM · NBC · 75° · Wind 9 mph · Cloudy · 12–13 F
Our pick Western Michigan +27.5Covered by 26.5
Line movement
Home spread. Open -27.5 → now -27.5 · total 50.0
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Bovada | -27.5 | 49.5 |
| DraftKings | -27.5 | 50.5 |
Michigan ML · Model 97% · Book 95%
Western Michigan off a byeMichigan off a byeWestern Michigan +12 days rest
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
Our pick Western Michigan +27.5OC Spread Michigan -17.0OC Total 43.010.6 pts vs market
Win probability
Western Michigan 3%Michigan 97%
Western MichiganPower ratingsMichigan
SP+Michigan by 14.2
-2.7
11.5
FPIMichigan by 14.4
-3.6
10.7
Elo (pts)Michigan by 9.4
-0.6
8.8
COREMichigan by 18.2
-6.2
12.1
WEPAMichigan by 7.3
-1.4
5.8
SRSMichigan by 7.2
-2.2
5.0
Head-to-head
Last 5: SU 5-0 · ATS 0-0 from Michigan's side
Game recap
| Metric | Western Michigan | Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.314 | 0.438 |
| Explosiveness | 1.080 | 1.080 |
| Havoc | 0.188 | 0.157 |
| PPA | -0.067 | 0.235 |
| Field position | 61.600 | 82.700 |
Passing
- Bryce Underwood · Michigan12/23 · 170 yds · 14.0 aDOT
- Broc Lowry · Western Michigan15/21 · 89 yds · 2.6 aDOT