North Texas @ No. 6 Indiana
9/5/2026, 4:00:00 PM · FOX · 87° · Wind 4 mph · Fair · 16–52 F
Our pick North Texas +41.0Covered by 5.0
Line movement
Home spread. Open -41.0 → now -40.0 · total 57.0
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Bovada | -40.5 | 56.0 |
| DraftKings | -39.5 | 57.5 |
Indiana ML · Model 100%
North Texas off a byeIndiana off a byeNorth Texas +23 days restNorth Texas travels 722 mi
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
Our pick North Texas +41.0OC Spread Indiana -25.5OC Total 56.514.7 pts vs market
Win probability
North Texas 0%Indiana 100%
North TexasPower ratingsIndiana
SP+Indiana by 24.8
-0.6
24.2
FPIIndiana by 19.7
2.2
21.9
Elo (pts)Indiana by 15.7
6.5
22.2
COREIndiana by 18.1
6.7
24.9
WEPAIndiana by 7.8
7.0
14.9
SRSIndiana by 12.2
4.1
16.3
Head-to-head
Last 2: SU 1-1 · ATS 0-0 from Indiana's side
Game recap
| Metric | North Texas | Indiana |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.350 | 0.511 |
| Explosiveness | 1.650 | 1.570 |
| Havoc | 0.044 | 0.150 |
| PPA | 0.185 | 0.594 |
| Field position | 74.500 | 53.800 |
Passing
- Tayven Jackson · North Texas22/28 · 192 yds · 4.9 aDOT
- Josh Hoover · Indiana13/16 · 231 yds · 7.3 aDOT
- Chaston Ditta · North Texas1/1 · 23 yds · 20.0 aDOT