California @ No. 23 SMU
10/24/2026, 4:00:00 PM · CW · 76° · Wind 2 mph · Cloudy · 20–59 F
Our pick SMU -18.5Covered by 20.5
Line movement
Home spread. Open -17.5 → now -18.5 · total 55.5
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Bovada | -18.5 | 55.0 |
| DraftKings | -18.5 | 55.5 |
SMU ML · Model 96% · Book 88% · value SMU
California travels 1472 mi
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
SMU
38
Our pick SMU -18.5OC Spread SMU -22.0OC Total 54.03.7 pts vs market
CaliforniaPower ratingsSMU
SP+SMU by 21.6
-8.2
13.4
FPISMU by 17.4
-6.9
10.5
Elo (pts)SMU by 21.7
-11.6
10.1
CORESMU by 27.3
-20.2
7.1
WEPASMU by 14.8
-13.1
1.7
SRSSMU by 15.7
-9.7
6.0
Game recap
| Metric | California | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.375 | 0.517 |
| Explosiveness | 1.270 | 1.230 |
| Havoc | 0.069 | 0.196 |
| PPA | 0.087 | 0.439 |
| Field position | 74.600 | 62.800 |
Passing
- Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele · California27/37 · 265 yds · 4.1 aDOT
- Kevin Jennings · SMU16/23 · 223 yds · 11.6 aDOT
- Ty Hawkins · SMU1/1 · 13 yds · -4.0 aDOT
- Angus Davies · California0/1 · 0 yds · -4.0 aDOT