No. 25 Virginia @ No. 24 SMU
10/17/2026, 4:00:00 PM · CW · 60° · Wind 4 mph · Clear · 13–23 F
Our pick Virginia +9.5Did not cover by 0.5
Line movement
Home spread. Open -9.5 → now -10.0 · total 52.0
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -10.0 | 51.5 |
| Bovada | -10.0 | 52.0 |
SMU ML · Model 73% · Book 74%
SMU off a byeSMU +8 days restVirginia travels 1087 mi
Ratings matchup
Our pick Virginia +9.5OC Spread SMU -7.0OC Total 53.03.1 pts vs market
VirginiaPower ratingsSMU
SP+SMU by 7.6
5.8
13.4
FPISMU by 6.8
3.7
10.5
Elo (pts)SMU by 11.0
-1.0
10.1
CORESMU by 15.2
-8.1
7.1
WEPASMU by 5.1
-3.4
1.7
SRSSMU by 4.9
1.1
6.0
Head-to-head
Last 1: SU 1-0 · ATS 0-0 from SMU's side
- 2024 · SMU 33–7unpriced
Game recap
| Metric | Virginia | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.426 | 0.451 |
| Explosiveness | 0.960 | 1.260 |
| Havoc | 0.113 | 0.111 |
| PPA | 0.116 | 0.149 |
| Field position | 74.300 | 70 |
Passing
- Kevin Jennings · SMU23/36 · 246 yds · 6.3 aDOT
- Beau Pribula · Virginia13/22 · 137 yds · 9.6 aDOT