Florida State @ No. 3 Miami
10/17/2026, 11:00:00 PM · ESPN · 76° · Wind 4 mph · Rain · 35–43 F
Line movement
Home spread. Open -16.5 → now -20.5 · total 57.0
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -20.5 | 57.5 |
| Bovada | -20.0 | 56.5 |
Miami ML · Model 96% · Book 90% · value Miami
Miami off a byeMiami +5 days rest
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
OC Spread Miami -21.5OC Total 56.01.3 pts vs market
Florida StatePower ratingsMiami
SP+Miami by 18.9
5.8
24.7
FPIMiami by 18.2
8.0
26.1
Elo (pts)Miami by 16.7
3.0
19.7
COREMiami by 19.3
-2.7
16.6
WEPAMiami by 13.1
0.3
13.4
SRSMiami by 16.9
3.3
20.2
Head-to-head
Last 5: SU 2-3 · ATS 0-0 from Miami's side
Game recap
| Metric | Florida State | Miami |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.354 | 0.443 |
| Explosiveness | 1.450 | 1.510 |
| Havoc | 0.076 | 0.077 |
| PPA | 0.059 | 0.260 |
| Field position | 68.200 | 79.700 |
Passing
- Darian Mensah · Miami23/35 · 326 yds · 8.6 aDOT
- Ashton Daniels · Florida State15/28 · 298 yds · 13.7 aDOT
- Kevin Sperry · Florida State1/2 · 7 yds · -1.5 aDOT