Florida State @ No. 16 Louisville
10/9/2026, 11:00:00 PM · ESPN · 76° · Wind 4 mph · Cloudy · 20–44 F
Our pick Louisville -4.5Covered by 19.5
Line movement
Home spread. Open -6.0 → now -4.5 · total 60.5
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Bovada | -4.5 | 60.5 |
| DraftKings | -4.0 | 60.5 |
Louisville ML · Model 76% · Book 65% · value Louisville
Florida State travels 543 mi
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
Our pick Louisville -4.5OC Spread Louisville -8.0OC Total 61.03.8 pts vs market
Florida StatePower ratingsLouisville
SP+Louisville by 6.4
5.8
12.2
FPILouisville by 6.2
8.0
14.2
Elo (pts)Louisville by 6.0
3.0
9.0
CORELouisville by 16.6
-2.7
13.9
WEPALouisville by 9.7
0.3
10.0
SRSLouisville by 9.3
3.3
12.6
Head-to-head
Last 5: SU 2-3 · ATS 0-0 from Louisville's side
- 2023 · Louisville 6–16unpriced
- 2022 · Louisville 31–35unpriced
- 2021 · Louisville 31–23unpriced
- 2020 · Louisville 48–16unpriced
- 2019 · Louisville 24–35unpriced
Game recap
| Metric | Florida State | Louisville |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.447 | 0.536 |
| Explosiveness | 1.150 | 1.460 |
| Havoc | 0.089 | 0.184 |
| PPA | 0.099 | 0.496 |
| Field position | 72.700 | 67.700 |
Passing
- Ashton Daniels · Florida State21/37 · 209 yds · 8.1 aDOT
- Lincoln Kienholz · Louisville11/15 · 140 yds · 9.3 aDOT
- Kevin Sperry · Florida State0/1 · 0 yds · 12.0 aDOT