No. 25 Virginia @ Florida State
10/3/2026, 7:30:00 PM · ESPN2 · 84° · Wind 2 mph · Cloudy · 7–38 F
Line movement
Home spread. Open +1.5 → now +1.5 · total 51.5
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +1.5 | 51.5 |
| Bovada | +1.0 | 51.5 |
Florida State ML · Model 56% · Book 63% · value Virginia
Virginia travels 620 mi
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
OC Spread Florida State -1.5OC Total 54.53.0 pts vs market
VirginiaPower ratingsFlorida State
SP+even
5.8
5.8
FPIFlorida State by 4.3
3.7
8.0
Elo (pts)Florida State by 4.0
-1.0
3.0
COREFlorida State by 5.4
-8.1
-2.7
WEPAFlorida State by 3.7
-3.4
0.3
SRSFlorida State by 2.2
1.1
3.3
Head-to-head
Last 5: SU 2-3 · ATS 0-0 from Florida State's side
- 2025 · Florida State 38–46unpriced
- 2019 · Florida State 24–31unpriced
- 2014 · Florida State 34–20unpriced
- 2011 · Florida State 13–14unpriced
- 2010 · Florida State 34–14unpriced
Game recap
| Metric | Virginia | Florida State |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.333 | 0.491 |
| Explosiveness | 0.730 | 1.290 |
| Havoc | 0.151 | 0.333 |
| PPA | -0.114 | 0.362 |
| Field position | 73.400 | 76.100 |
Passing
- Beau Pribula · Virginia14/32 · 168 yds · 8.3 aDOT
- Ashton Daniels · Florida State12/19 · 183 yds · 8.4 aDOT