Wake Forest @ No. 16 Louisville
9/26/2026, 4:00:00 PM · ESPN · 73° · Wind 4 mph · Fair · 30–27 F
Our pick Wake Forest +11.5Covered by 14.5
Line movement
Home spread. Open -13.5 → now -11.5 · total 57.5
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -11.5 | 57.5 |
| Bovada | -11.0 | 57.5 |
Louisville ML · Model 76% · Book 80% · value Wake Forest
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
Our pick Wake Forest +11.5OC Spread Louisville -8.0OC Total 58.03.3 pts vs market
Wake ForestPower ratingsLouisville
SP+even
12.2
12.2
FPIWake Forest by 3.3
17.4
14.2
Elo (pts)Wake Forest by 5.8
14.8
9.0
COREWake Forest by 4.8
18.7
13.9
WEPAWake Forest by 4.6
14.6
10.0
SRSWake Forest by 2.3
14.9
12.6
Head-to-head
Last 5: SU 3-2 · ATS 0-0 from Louisville's side
- 2022 · Louisville 48–21unpriced
- 2021 · Louisville 34–37unpriced
- 2020 · Louisville 45–21unpriced
- 2019 · Louisville 62–59unpriced
- 2018 · Louisville 35–56unpriced
Game recap
| Metric | Wake Forest | Louisville |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.443 | 0.427 |
| Explosiveness | 1.230 | 1.290 |
| Havoc | 0.173 | 0.131 |
| PPA | 0.234 | 0.104 |
| Field position | 71.700 | 71 |
Passing
- Lincoln Kienholz · Louisville27/36 · 324 yds · 9.2 aDOT
- Giovanni Lopez · Wake Forest12/19 · 225 yds · 7.2 aDOT