Missouri State @ No. 22 SMU
9/27/2026, 1:00:00 AM · ACC Network · 86° · Wind 8 mph · Clear · 24–34 F
Our pick Missouri State +30.5Covered by 20.5
Line movement
Home spread. Open -34.5 → now -30.5 · total 60.5
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -30.5 | 60.5 |
| Bovada | -30.5 | 60.5 |
SMU ML · Model 98% · Book 96%
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
Our pick Missouri State +30.5OC Spread SMU -27.5OC Total 56.52.9 pts vs market
Missouri StatePower ratingsSMU
SP+SMU by 30.3
-16.9
13.4
FPISMU by 25.3
-14.8
10.5
Elo (pts)SMU by 21.0
-10.9
10.1
CORESMU by 26.5
-19.4
7.1
WEPASMU by 15.1
-13.5
1.7
SRSSMU by 20.0
-14.0
6.0
Head-to-head
Last 1: SU 1-0 · ATS 0-0 from SMU's side
- 2025 · SMU 28–10unpriced
Game recap
| Metric | Missouri State | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.302 | 0.551 |
| Explosiveness | 1.180 | 0.980 |
| Havoc | 0.090 | 0.270 |
| PPA | -0.124 | 0.189 |
| Field position | 77.800 | 67.600 |
Passing
- Kevin Jennings · SMU33/39 · 464 yds · 8.5 aDOT
- Skyler Locklear · Missouri State14/18 · 87 yds · 7.9 aDOT
- Henry Belin IV · Missouri State7/15 · 69 yds · 9.7 aDOT