No. 16 SMU @ No. 23 Louisville
9/19/2026, 7:30:00 PM · ESPN2 · 95° · Wind 6 mph · Cloudy · 31–41 F
Line movement
Home spread. Open -1.5 → now -3.0 · total 57.5
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -3.0 | 57.5 |
| Bovada | -3.0 | 57.5 |
| Draft Kings | -3.0 | 57.5 |
Louisville ML · Model 65% · Book 38% · value Louisville
SMU travels 722 mi
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
SMU
26
OC Spread Louisville -4.0OC Total 55.51.2 pts vs market
SMUPower ratingsLouisville
SP+SMU by 1.2
13.4
12.2
FPILouisville by 3.7
10.5
14.2
Elo (pts)SMU by 1.0
10.1
9.0
CORELouisville by 6.8
7.1
13.9
WEPALouisville by 8.3
1.7
10.0
SRSLouisville by 6.6
6.0
12.6
Head-to-head
Last 4: SU 0-4 · ATS 0-0 from Louisville's side
- 2025 · Louisville 6–38unpriced
- 2024 · Louisville 27–34unpriced
- 1984 · Louisville 7–41unpriced
- 1983 · Louisville 6–24unpriced
Game recap
| Metric | SMU | Louisville |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.427 | 0.492 |
| Explosiveness | 1.240 | 1.450 |
| Havoc | 0.180 | 0.122 |
| PPA | 0 | 0.405 |
| Field position | 70.400 | 71.300 |
Passing
- Kevin Jennings · SMU24/35 · 222 yds · 8.8 aDOT
- Lincoln Kienholz · Louisville14/23 · 177 yds · 9.7 aDOT