No. 19 SMU @ Florida State
9/7/2026, 11:30:00 PM · ESPN · 88° · Wind 4 mph · Cloudy · 27–24 F
Line movement
Home spread. Open +2.5 → now +3.0 · total 54.0
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +3.0 | 54.5 |
| Bovada | +3.0 | 54.5 |
| Draft Kings | +3.0 | 52.5 |
Florida State ML · Model 45% · Book 41% · value Florida State
SMU off a byeSMU +238 days restSMU travels 752 mi
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
SMU
27
OC Spread Florida State +2.5OC Total 52.00.3 pts vs market
Win probability
SMU 55%Florida State 45%
SMUPower ratingsFlorida State
SP+SMU by 7.6
15.3
7.7
FPISMU by 6.1
13.8
7.7
Elo (pts)SMU by 7.1
9.4
2.3
CORESMU by 2.3
5.2
2.8
Head-to-head
Last 1: SU 0-1 · ATS 0-0 from Florida State's side
- 2024 · Florida State 16–42unpriced
Game recap
| Metric | SMU | Florida State |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.552 | 0.373 |
| Explosiveness | 1.290 | 1.440 |
| Havoc | 0.060 | 0.090 |
| PPA | 0.373 | 0.194 |
| Field position | 72.200 | 72.900 |
Passing
- Kevin Jennings · SMU24/34 · 416 yds
- Ashton Daniels · Florida State12/23 · 123 yds