No. 19 SMU @ Florida State
9/7/2026, 11:30:00 PM · ESPN · 88° · Wind 4 mph · Cloudy · 27–24 F
Line movement
Home spread. Open +2.5 → now +3.0 · total 53.5
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Bovada | +3.0 | 54.5 |
| DraftKings | +3.0 | 52.5 |
Florida State ML · Model 45% · Book 41% · value Florida State
SMU off a byeSMU +238 days restSMU travels 752 mi
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
SMU
29
OC Spread Florida State +1.5OC Total 57.01.4 pts vs market
Win probability
SMU 55%Florida State 45%
SMUPower ratingsFlorida State
SP+SMU by 7.6
13.4
5.8
FPISMU by 2.5
10.5
8.0
Elo (pts)SMU by 7.1
10.1
3.0
CORESMU by 9.8
7.1
-2.7
WEPASMU by 1.4
1.7
0.3
SRSSMU by 2.7
6.0
3.3
Head-to-head
Last 1: SU 0-1 · ATS 0-0 from Florida State's side
- 2024 · Florida State 16–42unpriced
Game recap
| Metric | SMU | Florida State |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.552 | 0.373 |
| Explosiveness | 1.290 | 1.440 |
| Havoc | 0.060 | 0.090 |
| PPA | 0.373 | 0.194 |
| Field position | 72.200 | 72.900 |
Passing
- Kevin Jennings · SMU24/34 · 416 yds
- Ashton Daniels · Florida State12/23 · 123 yds