UCLA @ California
9/6/2026, 2:30:00 AM · ESPN · 62° · Wind 7 mph · Cloudy · 45–24 F
Our pick California +2.5Did not cover by 18.5
Line movement
Home spread. Open +2.0 → now +2.5 · total 53.5
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Bovada | +2.5 | 53.5 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 | 53.5 |
California ML · Model 45% · Book 45%
UCLA off a byeCalifornia off a byeUCLA +25 days rest
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
UCLA
34
Our pick California +2.5OC Spread California +17.0OC Total 51.014.4 pts vs market
Win probability
UCLA 55%California 45%
UCLAPower ratingsCalifornia
SP+UCLA by 22.6
14.4
-8.2
FPIUCLA by 19.2
12.2
-6.9
Elo (pts)UCLA by 21.6
10.0
-11.6
COREUCLA by 43.8
23.5
-20.2
WEPAUCLA by 28.9
15.7
-13.1
SRSUCLA by 25.8
16.1
-9.7
Head-to-head
Last 5: SU 2-3 · ATS 0-0 from California's side
- 2023 · California 33–7unpriced
- 2022 · California 28–35unpriced
- 2021 · California 14–42unpriced
- 2020 · California 10–34unpriced
- 2019 · California 28–18unpriced
Game recap
| Metric | UCLA | California |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.566 | 0.337 |
| Explosiveness | 1.250 | 1.490 |
| Havoc | 0.191 | 0.170 |
| PPA | 0.420 | 0.118 |
| Field position | 59.300 | 78.700 |
Passing
- Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele · California24/41 · 271 yds · 8.4 aDOT
- Nico Iamaleava · UCLA14/22 · 184 yds · 7.0 aDOT
- Jackson Brousseau · California2/6 · 20 yds · 7.8 aDOT