Miami (OH) @ Pittsburgh
9/5/2026, 4:30:00 PM · CW · 81° · Wind 4 mph · Cloudy · 14–59 F
Our pick Pittsburgh -16.5Covered by 28.5
Line movement
Home spread. Open -16.5 → now -16.5 · total 47.5
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Bovada | -16.0 | 47.0 |
| DraftKings | -16.5 | 47.5 |
Pittsburgh ML · Model 87% · Book 85%
Miami (OH) off a byePittsburgh off a bye
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
Our pick Pittsburgh -16.5OC Spread Pittsburgh -18.5OC Total 51.52.3 pts vs market
Win probability
Miami (OH) 14%Pittsburgh 87%
Miami (OH)Power ratingsPittsburgh
SP+Pittsburgh by 12.1
-4.2
7.9
FPIPittsburgh by 18.1
-9.8
8.4
Elo (pts)Pittsburgh by 14.7
-9.7
5.0
COREPittsburgh by 2.0
-0.8
1.2
WEPAPittsburgh by 6.5
-4.2
2.3
SRSPittsburgh by 14.3
-8.7
5.6
Head-to-head
Last 2: SU 2-0 · ATS 0-0 from Pittsburgh's side
- 1949 · Pittsburgh 35–26unpriced
- 1931 · Pittsburgh 61–0unpriced
Game recap
| Metric | Miami (OH) | Pittsburgh |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.282 | 0.491 |
| Explosiveness | 1.890 | 1.570 |
| Havoc | 0.113 | 0.154 |
| PPA | 0.086 | 0.463 |
| Field position | 75.300 | 70.800 |
Passing
- Mason Heintschel · Pittsburgh32/42 · 453 yds · 10.8 aDOT
- David McComb · Miami (OH)16/33 · 240 yds · 9.4 aDOT
- Caleb Heavner · Miami (OH)3/4 · 21 yds · 10.8 aDOT
- Holden Geriner · Pittsburgh3/3 · 27 yds · 6.3 aDOT