Iowa State @ No. 25 Arizona
10/24/2026, 11:30:00 PM · ESPN2 · 73° · Wind 5 mph · Fair · 3–39 F
Our pick Arizona -12.0Covered by 24.0
Line movement
Home spread. Open -10.0 → now -12.0 · total 51.5
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -11.5 | 51.5 |
| Bovada | -12.5 | 51.5 |
Arizona ML · Model 91% · Book 73% · value Arizona
Iowa State off a byeArizona off a byeIowa State travels 1165 mi
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
Our pick Arizona -12.0OC Spread Arizona -16.5OC Total 51.54.6 pts vs market
Iowa StatePower ratingsArizona
SP+Arizona by 17.2
-1.2
16.0
FPIArizona by 10.8
2.2
13.0
Elo (pts)Arizona by 10.0
2.0
12.0
COREArizona by 19.9
-0.8
19.1
WEPAArizona by 14.0
-3.7
10.3
SRSArizona by 9.9
4.4
14.3
Game recap
| Metric | Iowa State | Arizona |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.294 | 0.449 |
| Explosiveness | 1.140 | 1.350 |
| Havoc | 0.145 | 0.196 |
| PPA | -0.150 | 0.260 |
| Field position | 77.600 | 71 |
Passing
- Noah Fifita · Arizona28/35 · 313 yds · 7.0 aDOT
- Connor Moberly · Iowa State7/17 · 63 yds · 10.6 aDOT
- Jaylen Raynor · Iowa State8/10 · 106 yds · 11.5 aDOT
- Sawyer Anderson · Arizona3/3 · 28 yds · 3.3 aDOT