Arizona State @ No. 10 Texas Tech
10/17/2026, 7:30:00 PM · Fox · 57° · Wind 3 mph · Fair · 25–53 F
Our pick Texas Tech -14.5Covered by 13.5
Line movement
Home spread. Open -14.5 → now -16.0 · total 50.0
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -16.5 | 50.5 |
| Bovada | -15.5 | 49.5 |
Texas Tech ML · Model 96% · Book 84% · value Texas Tech
Texas Tech off a byeTexas Tech +7 days restArizona State travels 579 mi
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
Our pick Texas Tech -14.5OC Spread Texas Tech -22.5OC Total 51.06.3 pts vs market
Arizona StatePower ratingsTexas Tech
SP+Texas Tech by 16.1
2.3
18.4
FPITexas Tech by 15.3
1.4
16.8
Elo (pts)Texas Tech by 14.5
-1.0
13.4
CORETexas Tech by 17.2
-1.2
16.0
WEPATexas Tech by 11.5
-3.9
7.6
SRSTexas Tech by 13.5
0.2
13.7
Head-to-head
Last 5: SU 3-2 · ATS 0-0 from Texas Tech's side
- 2025 · Texas Tech 22–26unpriced
- 2024 · Texas Tech 30–22unpriced
- 2017 · Texas Tech 52–45unpriced
- 2016 · Texas Tech 55–68unpriced
- 2013 · Texas Tech 37–23unpriced
Game recap
| Metric | Arizona State | Texas Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.342 | 0.564 |
| Explosiveness | 1.510 | 1.050 |
| Havoc | 0.182 | 0.447 |
| PPA | -0.248 | 0.313 |
| Field position | 80.400 | 54.200 |
Passing
- Mikey Keene · Arizona State25/34 · 256 yds · 8.8 aDOT
- Will Hammond · Texas Tech18/26 · 232 yds · 9.9 aDOT
- Cutter Boley · Arizona State5/10 · 124 yds · 12.0 aDOT
- Thomas Castellanos · Texas Tech1/1 · 10 yds · 4.0 aDOT