Option Country
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No. 22 Houston @ Kansas State

10/10/2026, 7:30:00 PM · FOX · 89° · Wind 10 mph · Clear · 35–16 F

Our pick Houston +2.5Covered by 21.5

Line movement

Home spread. Open -2.5 → now -2.5 · total 55.0

Books

BookSpreadTotal
Bovada-2.554.5
DraftKings-2.555.5

Kansas State ML · Model 37% · Book 56% · value Houston

Kansas State off a byeKansas State +6 days restHouston travels 659 mi

Ratings matchup

OC Model projected score

Our pick Houston +2.5OC Spread Kansas State +4.0OC Total 57.06.4 pts vs market
HoustonPower ratingsKansas State
SP+Houston by 4.5
13.3
8.8
FPIHouston by 9.3
14.0
4.7
Elo (pts)Houston by 0.8
4.6
3.8
COREHouston by 14.8
10.7
-4.1
WEPAHouston by 8.2
6.4
-1.8
SRSHouston by 13.1
16.3
3.2

Head-to-head

Last 2: SU 1-1 · ATS 0-0 from Kansas State's side

Game recap

MetricHoustonKansas State
Success rate0.5220.439
Explosiveness1.3300.900
Havoc0.1950.087
PPA0.5080.079
Field position73.80074

Passing

  • Conner Weigman · Houston19/30 · 242 yds · 8.5 aDOT
  • Avery Johnson · Kansas State16/30 · 182 yds · 6.7 aDOT

Win probability