Cincinnati @ Arizona
10/4/2026, 3:00:00 AM · FOX · 81° · Wind 3 mph · Clear · 7–34 F
Our pick Cincinnati +8.5Did not cover by 18.5
2nd & Goal at ARIZ 2
Line movement
Home spread. Open -8.5 → now -7.0 · total 56.0
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Bovada | -6.5 | 55.5 |
| DraftKings | -7.0 | 56.5 |
Arizona ML · Model 71% · Book 71%
Cincinnati travels 1552 mi
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
Our pick Cincinnati +8.5OC Spread Arizona -6.5OC Total 56.50.5 pts vs market
CincinnatiPower ratingsArizona
SP+Arizona by 9.3
6.7
16.0
FPIArizona by 8.4
4.6
13.0
Elo (pts)Arizona by 11.6
0.4
12.0
COREArizona by 18.5
0.6
19.1
WEPAArizona by 8.8
1.5
10.3
SRSArizona by 9.4
4.9
14.3
Head-to-head
Last 1: SU 1-0 · ATS 0-0 from Arizona's side
- 2025 · Arizona 30–24unpriced
Game recap
| Metric | Cincinnati | Arizona |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.283 | 0.536 |
| Explosiveness | 1.480 | 1.130 |
| Havoc | 0.214 | 0.196 |
| PPA | -0.177 | 0.272 |
| Field position | 72.400 | 76.800 |
Passing
- Noah Fifita · Arizona25/37 · 284 yds · 6.6 aDOT
- JC French · Cincinnati16/29 · 153 yds · 4.8 aDOT