UCF @ No. 20 Houston
10/3/2026, 4:00:00 PM · ESPN2 · 85° · Wind 6 mph · Rain Shower · 17–27 F
Our pick UCF +10.5Covered by 0.5
Line movement
Home spread. Open -10.5 → now -10.5 · total 51.0
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -10.5 | 50.5 |
| Bovada | -10.5 | 51.0 |
Houston ML · Model 74% · Book 78%
UCF travels 857 mi
Ratings matchup
Our pick UCF +10.5OC Spread Houston -7.5OC Total 53.03.2 pts vs market
UCFPower ratingsHouston
SP+Houston by 8.8
4.5
13.3
FPIHouston by 11.0
3.0
14.0
Elo (pts)Houston by 8.4
-3.8
4.6
COREHouston by 13.3
-2.7
10.7
WEPAHouston by 6.3
0.1
6.4
SRSHouston by 10.3
6.0
16.3
Head-to-head
Last 5: SU 2-3 · ATS 0-0 from Houston's side
Game recap
| Metric | UCF | Houston |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.304 | 0.506 |
| Explosiveness | 1.670 | 0.740 |
| Havoc | 0.091 | 0.232 |
| PPA | 0.116 | 0.026 |
| Field position | 80.900 | 55.900 |
Passing
- Keyone Jenkins · UCF23/35 · 253 yds · 8.3 aDOT
- Conner Weigman · Houston18/33 · 239 yds · 7.8 aDOT
- Kaleb Annett · UCF2/3 · 6 yds · 0.3 aDOT