Baylor @ Arizona State
10/4/2026, 2:30:00 AM · ESPN · 89° · Wind 4 mph · Clear · 55–19 F
Our pick Baylor +3.5Covered by 39.5
Line movement
Home spread. Open -3.5 → now -3.5 · total 49.0
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Bovada | -3.5 | 48.5 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 | 49.5 |
Arizona State ML · Model 29% · Book 62% · value Baylor
Arizona State off a byeArizona State +7 days restBaylor travels 872 mi
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
Our pick Baylor +3.5OC Spread Arizona State +6.5OC Total 49.09.9 pts vs market
BaylorPower ratingsArizona State
SP+Baylor by 6.2
8.5
2.3
FPIBaylor by 9.8
11.2
1.4
Elo (pts)Baylor by 8.5
7.5
-1.0
COREBaylor by 14.1
12.9
-1.2
WEPABaylor by 13.9
10.0
-3.9
SRSBaylor by 10.9
11.1
0.2
Head-to-head
Last 2: SU 2-0 · ATS 0-0 from Arizona State's side
- 2025 · Arizona State 27–24unpriced
- 1990 · Arizona State 34–13unpriced
Game recap
| Metric | Baylor | Arizona State |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.426 | 0.407 |
| Explosiveness | 2.050 | 0.990 |
| Havoc | 0.222 | 0.115 |
| PPA | 0.506 | 0.032 |
| Field position | 65.600 | 75.700 |
Passing
- Cutter Boley · Arizona State25/43 · 304 yds · 8.3 aDOT
- D.J. Lagway · Baylor25/41 · 306 yds · 11.2 aDOT
- Nate Bennett · Baylor2/2 · 14 yds · 4.0 aDOT
- Kyson Brown · Arizona State1/1 · 6 yds · -4.0 aDOT