Kansas State @ Cincinnati
9/26/2026, 11:00:00 PM · ESPN2 · 59° · Wind 0 mph · Clear · 26–31 F
Our pick Cincinnati +6.0Covered by 11.0
Line movement
Home spread. Open +6.0 → now +6.0 · total 55.5
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +6.0 | 55.5 |
| Bovada | +6.0 | 55.0 |
Cincinnati ML · Model 47% · Book 32% · value Cincinnati
Kansas State travels 647 mi
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
Our pick Cincinnati +6.0OC Spread Cincinnati +1.0OC Total 58.05.2 pts vs market
Kansas StatePower ratingsCincinnati
SP+Kansas State by 2.1
8.8
6.7
FPIKansas State by 0.1
4.7
4.6
Elo (pts)Kansas State by 3.4
3.8
0.4
CORECincinnati by 4.7
-4.1
0.6
WEPACincinnati by 3.3
-1.8
1.5
SRSCincinnati by 1.7
3.2
4.9
Head-to-head
Last 5: SU 2-3 · ATS 0-0 from Cincinnati's side
- 2024 · Cincinnati 15–41unpriced
- 1996 · Cincinnati 0–35unpriced
- 1995 · Cincinnati 21–23unpriced
- 1966 · Cincinnati 28–14unpriced
- 1965 · Cincinnati 21–14unpriced
Game recap
| Metric | Kansas State | Cincinnati |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.481 | 0.412 |
| Explosiveness | 1.020 | 1.730 |
| Havoc | 0.157 | 0.074 |
| PPA | 0.264 | 0.371 |
| Field position | 77.800 | 72.700 |
Passing
- Avery Johnson · Kansas State29/49 · 275 yds · 7.2 aDOT
- JC French · Cincinnati8/13 · 165 yds · 10.2 aDOT
- Samaj Jones · Cincinnati1/1 · 64 yds · 16.0 aDOT