Georgia State @ UCF
9/19/2026, 11:00:00 PM · ESPN+ · 80° · Wind 4 mph · Heavy Rain · 30–44 F
Our pick UCF -18.5Did not cover by 4.5
Line movement
Home spread. Open -21.0 → now -17.5 · total 50.5
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Bovada | -17.5 | 50.0 |
| DraftKings | -17.5 | 50.5 |
| Draft Kings | -17.5 | 50.5 |
UCF ML · Model 95% · Book 88% · value UCF
Georgia State travels 401 mi
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
UCF
37
Our pick UCF -18.5OC Spread UCF -20.5OC Total 53.03.2 pts vs market
Georgia StatePower ratingsUCF
SP+UCF by 13.7
-9.2
4.5
FPIUCF by 12.2
-9.2
3.0
Elo (pts)UCF by 2.8
-6.6
-3.8
COREGeorgia State by 0.7
-1.9
-2.7
WEPAGeorgia State by 1.2
1.3
0.1
SRSUCF by 11.5
-5.5
6.0
Game recap
| Metric | Georgia State | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.395 | 0.429 |
| Explosiveness | 1.410 | 1.340 |
| Havoc | 0.125 | 0.163 |
| PPA | 0.006 | 0.228 |
| Field position | 72.500 | 58.400 |
Passing
- Cameran Brown · Georgia State30/47 · 282 yds · 6.7 aDOT
- Keyone Jenkins · UCF7/17 · 86 yds · 11.3 aDOT
- Ayden Pereira · Georgia State0/2 · 0 yds · 0.5 aDOT