Bowling Green @ Iowa State
9/19/2026, 4:00:00 PM · ESPNU · 79° · Wind 6 mph · Heavy Rain · 7–55 F
Our pick Iowa State -23.0Covered by 25.0
Line movement
Home spread. Open -22.5 → now -23.0 · total 43.5
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Bovada | -23.0 | 43.5 |
| DraftKings | -23.5 | 43.5 |
| Draft Kings | -22.5 | 43.5 |
Iowa State ML · Model 99% · Book 92% · value Iowa State
Bowling Green travels 518 mi
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
Our pick Iowa State -23.0OC Spread Iowa State -30.5OC Total 45.57.3 pts vs market
Bowling GreenPower ratingsIowa State
SP+Iowa State by 17.0
-18.2
-1.2
FPIIowa State by 19.7
-17.6
2.2
Elo (pts)Iowa State by 13.0
-11.0
2.0
COREIowa State by 12.9
-13.8
-0.8
WEPAIowa State by 4.8
-8.5
-3.7
SRSIowa State by 19.4
-15.0
4.4
Head-to-head
Last 2: SU 2-0 · ATS 0-0 from Iowa State's side
- 1979 · Iowa State 38–10unpriced
- 1977 · Iowa State 35–21unpriced
Game recap
| Metric | Bowling Green | Iowa State |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.303 | 0.561 |
| Explosiveness | 1.160 | 1.420 |
| Havoc | 0.171 | 0.364 |
| PPA | -0.186 | 0.383 |
| Field position | 73.400 | 68 |
Passing
- Jaylen Raynor · Iowa State11/17 · 133 yds · 6.2 aDOT
- Jay Kastantin · Bowling Green8/17 · 86 yds · 8.8 aDOT
- Austin Novosad · Bowling Green1/5 · -1 yds · 5.6 aDOT
- Connor Moberly · Iowa State1/1 · 9 yds · 6.0 aDOT