Miami (OH) @ Cincinnati
9/19/2026, 7:30:00 PM · ESPN+ · 86° · Wind 5 mph · Fair · 31–35 F
Our pick Cincinnati -15.5Did not cover by 11.5
Line movement
Home spread. Open -15.5 → now -14.5 · total 50.5
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -14.5 | 50.5 |
| Bovada | -14.5 | 50.0 |
| Draft Kings | -14.5 | 50.5 |
Cincinnati ML · Model 92% · Book 83% · value Cincinnati
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
Our pick Cincinnati -15.5OC Spread Cincinnati -17.0OC Total 52.52.3 pts vs market
Miami (OH)Power ratingsCincinnati
SP+Cincinnati by 10.9
-4.2
6.7
FPICincinnati by 14.4
-9.8
4.6
Elo (pts)Cincinnati by 10.0
-9.7
0.4
CORECincinnati by 1.3
-0.8
0.6
WEPACincinnati by 5.7
-4.2
1.5
SRSCincinnati by 13.6
-8.7
4.9
Head-to-head
Last 5: SU 4-1 · ATS 0-0 from Cincinnati's side
- 2024 · Cincinnati 27–16unpriced
- 2023 · Cincinnati 24–31unpriced
- 2022 · Cincinnati 38–17unpriced
- 2021 · Cincinnati 49–14unpriced
- 2019 · Cincinnati 35–13unpriced
Game recap
| Metric | Miami (OH) | Cincinnati |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.379 | 0.494 |
| Explosiveness | 1.580 | 1.220 |
| Havoc | 0.117 | 0.241 |
| PPA | 0.139 | 0.235 |
| Field position | 69.700 | 68.300 |
Passing
- JC French · Cincinnati31/43 · 309 yds · 7.8 aDOT
- David McComb · Miami (OH)17/28 · 334 yds · 14.8 aDOT
- D'Shawntae Jones · Miami (OH)2/2 · 43 yds · 12.5 aDOT