Option Country
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Oregon State @ No. 23 Houston

9/5/2026, 4:00:00 PM · ESPN · 89° · Wind 0 mph · Cloudy · 20–33 F

Our pick Oregon State +21.0Covered by 8.0

Line movement

Home spread. Open -21.0 → now -21.0 · total 50.5

Books

BookSpreadTotal
Bovada-20.550.5
DraftKings-21.050.5

Houston ML · Model 93% · Book 89%

Oregon State off a byeHouston off a byeOregon State +28 days restOregon State travels 1834 mi

Ratings matchup

OC Model projected score

Our pick Oregon State +21.0OC Spread Houston -10.5OC Total 57.510.4 pts vs market

Win probability

Oregon State 7%Houston 93%
Oregon StatePower ratingsHouston
SP+Houston by 6.7
6.6
13.3
FPIHouston by 9.9
4.2
14.0
Elo (pts)Houston by 1.5
3.1
4.6
COREHouston by 4.2
6.5
10.7
WEPAHouston by 0.9
5.5
6.4
SRSHouston by 8.2
8.1
16.3

Head-to-head

Last 4: SU 3-1 · ATS 0-0 from Houston's side

Game recap

MetricOregon StateHouston
Success rate0.4050.500
Explosiveness1.3401.250
Havoc0.1350.216
PPA0.1830.312
Field position77.70070.500

Passing

  • Braden Atkinson · Oregon State29/48 · 376 yds · 11.1 aDOT
  • Conner Weigman · Houston20/30 · 305 yds · 10.9 aDOT
  • Keisean Henderson · Houston0/1 · 0 yds · 24.0 aDOT

Win probability