No. 16 Mississippi State @ No. 11 Texas
10/31/2026, 11:30:00 PM · ESPN · 75° · Wind 1 mph · Fair · 3–31 F
Line movement
Home spread. Open -20.5 → now -20.0 · total 50.5
Books
| Book | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -19.5 | 50.5 |
| Bovada | -20.5 | 50.5 |
Texas ML · Model 93% · Book 90%
Mississippi State travels 568 mi
Ratings matchup
OC Model projected score
OC Spread Texas -18.0OC Total 53.51.8 pts vs market
Mississippi StatePower ratingsTexas
SP+Texas by 14.4
6.0
20.4
FPITexas by 16.2
7.8
24.0
Elo (pts)Texas by 16.6
0.8
17.4
COREeven
9.0
9.0
WEPATexas by 5.5
3.0
8.5
SRSTexas by 13.4
7.5
20.9
Game recap
| Metric | Mississippi State | Texas |
|---|---|---|
| Success rate | 0.268 | 0.380 |
| Explosiveness | 0.920 | 1.390 |
| Havoc | 0.180 | 0.268 |
| PPA | -0.230 | 0.156 |
| Field position | 66.200 | 76.400 |
Passing
- Arch Manning · Texas16/20 · 220 yds · 6.8 aDOT
- AJ Swann · Mississippi State12/15 · 97 yds · 6.1 aDOT
- Parker Puckett · Mississippi State3/10 · 22 yds · 5.5 aDOT
- Anthony Evans III · Mississippi State1/1 · 8 yds · 8.0 aDOT